Ah, the Oscars, everyone’s universally loved pastime. No one has a single issue with the organization and all is well. All winners will have their just screentime, Denis Villeneuve definitely got nominated for best director, the hosts are perfect, and ABC is happy about how many people tune in. 

Ok, enough of that…let’s get right to the fun part: Here are the picks (what deserves a win) and predictions (what will win) at this year’s Academy Awards. 

Pick: Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM! 

Prediction: Will Smith, King Richard 

Let’s kick it off with maybe the closest race here. These two are neck and neck after pro-conning the two of them. Will Smith has won a ton of awards this year leading up to the Oscars which bode well, plus he’s on the older side and the Academy usually likes to award older people who should’ve gotten an Oscar earlier. Also, it’s WILL SMITH so that’s certainly a big pro. Con: He has done zero press, and press tours win awards. Andrew on the other hand? He’s done every interview known to man and is the most loved actor on the planet right now…but Will Smith delivers such an Academy-type performance. Garfield is my favorite but Smith will win…but it’s definitely a close race. Benedict Cumberbatch is also an extremely solid competitor so I could be wrong on all accounts.

Pick: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog 

Prediction: Troy Kotsur, CODA

Kodi Smit-McPhee delivers a masterclass in finding a throughline between being a subtle and blunt performer here. He’s unbelievable…but Kotsur is unbelievably close to that Oscar. Kotsur took home a SAG and a BAFTA while also getting some ensemble awards for CODA making him a very serious threat to Kodi. Not to mention he’s a great speaker with a whole lot of charisma, plus a lengthy industry experience that the Academy likes to recognize. I adored both these performances, but Kotsur has it.

Pick: Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Prediction: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye 

Unlike the Academy (and most of the cinematic awards), I was actually a really big fan of Pablo Larrain’s Spencer. I was even more of a fan of Stewart’s turn as the Princess of Wales herself, Diana. However, I’m not the voting body of the Academy, so this definitely goes to Chastain. She’s been going extremely hard on social media and she’s on any interview she can get into, the hustle is on for Jessie and it’s paying off. She’s won a ton of awards this season and seems a little overdue for her Oscar. If it was up to me, Renate Riensve and Alana Haim are in the category and Reinsve wins but alas, here we are. 

Pick and Prediction: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story 

I don’t think I even need to explain. Anita in West Side Story is the perfect Oscar-winning role and DeBose gave one of my favorite performances all year. The DeBose hype train is unstoppable and it’s coming for the Dolby Theater this weekend. She will be the second Latina to win an Oscar(behind Anita OG and 2021 West Side Story Co-star Rita Moreno). She will win.  

Pick and Prediction: “The Power of the Dog” by Jane Campion

Sorry Sam Elliot, but Jane Campion is too powerful to be stopped. Campion has killed it with The Power of the Dog this year and with 12 nominations, it’s bound to get at least a few. If I had to pick a competitor for this category it would certainly be CODA which is having a resurgence of popularity while voting is going on…but I think it may be too little, too late. But if i’m being honest with myself, the CODA hype is incredibly strong, but I could be wrong here.

Pick and Prediction: Encanto (Walt Disney) Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino, and Clark Spencer 

A Lin-Manuel Miranda Disney movie that made everyone cry. The Oscar has been locked down since the moment it was released, ok, next category. Jokes aside, Flee is really really good and has a few nominations to its name. I also adored Luca, and The Mitchells Vs. the Machines is a great movie that has done some insanely good press. But let’s be real, Disney, as per usual, has this category in the bag.

Pick: Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story 

Prediction: Greig Fraser, Dune 

There was a real big Kaminski wave after the VOD/Disney+/HBO MAX drop of West Side Story which compelled me to admit I think it’s a better shot film than my beloved Dune. Kaminski and Spielberg go god-mode and Guillermo Del Toro even came out to Twitter to applaud the mastery of his work. However, the best cinematography Oscar will go to Dune. Greig Fraser just popped out The Batman and has been praised for his work…which keeps that name fresh in Academy voters’ minds. Plus, Fraser is in the ASC and Kaminski is not, Fraser has never won an Oscar, and Kaminski has two. 

Pick: Paul Tazewell, West Side Story 

Prediction: Jenny Beavan, Cruella 

Frankly, I don’t have much to say here. Jenny Beavan has taken home a plethora of awards for Cruella, it’ll probably win, simple as that. I mean, it’s a movie about fashion, it kind of has to win. I threw in West Side Story in there as my pick because of the gorgeous costumes that do the whole red vs. blue type deal but make it seem natural at the same time. Everything fits the respective character and I love that. But I believe it’s Cruella.

Pick and Prediction: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog 

She’s going through this awards season being hailed as one of the most important woman directors of her generation, of cinema history, and one of the masters of the craft. She did have some backlash for a speech she had at the Critic’s Choice but I think the Campion train can’t stop there. 

Pick and Prediction: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (Searchlight/Onyx Collective/Hulu) Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent, and David Dinerstein 

One of my favorites of last year. If you are in any way interested in music, American history, New York, or culture in general, this is a must-watch. Thompson already plugged this film last year at the Oscars, and he will return to this year’s ceremony and leave with the golden statuette.

Pick: Audible(Netflix) Dir. Matt Ogens, Geoff McLean

Prediction: The Queen of Basketball(New York Times) Dir. Ben Proudfoot

I’ve seen a few in this category, none will stick with me nearly as long as Audible. A touching story about a Deaf high school football team on Netflix. However, The Queen of Basketball is another interesting story on YouTube that I found to be a little lighter and seems more the Academy’s speed.

Pick and Prediction: Joe Walker, Dune 

Dune’s editing is flashy, in-your-face, well done, and is integral to the actual film. Dune should win and I think it will.

Pick: The Worst Person in the World (Norway) Dir. Joachim Trier

Prediction: Drive My Car (Japan) Dir. Ryusuke Hamaguchi

Both are phenomenal films, but one of these has a Best Picture nomination, and the other is The Worst Person in the World. Congratulations Ryusuke.

Pick and Prediction: Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye 

It’s extremely apparent that make-up is present in Tammy Faye and it’s very well done. Both Andrew Garfield and Jessica Chastain go through some crazy transformations that are award-worthy. I’ll throw in runner-up recognition for House of Gucci. 

Pick and Prediction: Hans Zimmer, Dune

He is incredible in interviews, has been hailed as a key figure in Dune’s success, and invented new instruments for his score. Next category.

Pick: The Worst Person in the World by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

Prediction: Belfast by Kenneth Branaugh  

Oh geez ok, so this is a rough category. The true win I actively want to win is The Worst Person in the World because it’s a banger screenplay but there’s not enough groundswell there. Licorice Pizza I’d like to win as well, but it’s a little too weird for the Academy despite them(and me) wanting to finally award a PTA script. Belfast it is. Don’t Look Up winning is a terrifyingly possible thought.

Pick and Prediction: Production Design: Patrice Vermette, Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune 

Its sets are absolutely gorgeous with some insane brutalist architecture that looked like ancient temples and futuristic palaces simultaneously. It’s perfect. I like the sets for West Side Story and The Tragedy of Macbeth just slightly better but everyone just gushes over the artisans of Dune and after a BAFTA win it just makes sense.

Pick and Prediction: Robin Robin (Aardman/Netflix) Dan Ojari and Mikey Please 

It has movie stars in it, plus it’s on Netflix, plus it’s cute, plus it’s Aardman. Academy Award.

Pick and Prediction: The Long Goodbye, Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed 

Riz Ahmed comes out with a short that genuinely floored me and is now one of my favorite short films ever. I’d tell you about it, but it’s free on YouTube.

Pick and Prediction: “No Time To Die” from No Time to Die by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell 

It’s won every award, the song is really good, everyone loves Billie Eilish and I think the Academy does too. Dos Orugitas is a solid runner-up but I think Lin’s EGOT will come another day, he will get it in the next 5 years I think.

Pick and Prediction: Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, Ron Bartlett, Dune 

After all my years of watching movies, I think Dune may be the best movie I’ve ever heard. Next category.

Pick and Prediction: Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer,Dune 

The mixing of practical effects and CG? Shooting on location? Sand screens>green screens. Let the spice flow.

Pick and Prediction: The Power of the Dog (Netflix) Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning, and Roger Frappier

Runner-Up: CODA (Apple Original Films) Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger

So, the big one. My gut says The Power of the Dog but my heart and my brain says CODA. Both films I genuinely adore but The Power of the Dog is such an achievement in all-around filmmaking by a master of the art form. On the other hand, CODA is a crowd-pleasing, loveable indie darling that everyone loves to see win this awards season. I think I’m wrong, I really do, but I’m choosing The Power of the Dog because I just have a hunch I can’t shake. If either wins I’ll be equally happy and I am 99% sure it’s one of these two. I think it’ll be hilarious if CODA wins as an Apple movie after Netflix has been trying for years to get an Oscar and then Apple comes in late to take it first try. Really funny…but also very weird that Apple is an underdog in this race? And I’m rooting for them? Very odd. Still on team Campion though, but we’ll see on March 27th. 

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