The 98th Annual Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 15. Fans and filmmakers alike are looking forward to an exciting night celebrating another great year in the film industry.
I predict that “Avatar: Fire and Ash” will win Best Visual Effects — and it deserves to. The previous two Avatar films won the category in 2009 and 2022; not just because they looked the “coolest”, but because they consistently pushed the industry as a whole forward, creating new techniques and even new technologies to create the best image possible.
Best Visual Effects is a small category compared to Best Picture at the Oscars — over $22 million is currently bet on Best Picture alone on Polymarket, the largest prediction market, while Best Visual Effects holds a measly $35 thousand volume; however, Visual Effects is a critical influence behind any of the nominees. (See nominees here).
Visual effects integrate computer-generated imagery (CGI) and other elements not captured in-camera with real footage. It is a complicated and costly process that shapes many modern films. Looking at a film like “Avengers: Endgame”, it may seem obvious that many elements of the film are not real, such as giant purple aliens and planet-destroying lasers, but looking at a film like “Sinners” or “F1”, it may be challenging to spot the use of VFX.
That’s the point.
When you can’t notice the use of visual effects in a movie, then the artists truly did an exceptional job. “It’s still a magic trick to make visual effects that are photo-real,” says Niko Pueringer, visual effects artist and co-founder of CorridorDigital. (VFX Artists React to 2026 Oscar-Nominated CGI 11:51-11:54).
“Sinners”, a nominee in the category, includes over a thousand visual effects shots in the film (more than half of the total shots). A lot of them come from twinning with Michael B. Jordan. Many viewers thought Jordan had a real-life twin, but it was all VFX. Twinning effects have been used time and time again; however, movement and interaction between the twins proved to be an extreme challenge for the filmmakers. They utilized cutting-edge technology and methods designed specifically for the film to capture it, including a 360-degree camera rig to track Jordan’s facial expressions. Additionally, certain parts of the sets, such as the train station, were largely created using VFX in post-production to make the set look larger than it was in-camera.
With that, however, no matter how photo-realistic VFX look, there is a point where the viewer knows that an effect can’t possibly happen in real life. Take “Avatar”, for example. When watching the film, it is easy to tell that the characters and environments aren’t real; however, Avatar’s VFX are so outstanding that they make the characters seem as if they could exist in real life, if scientifically possible. Most importantly, the VFX artists were able to create natural elements like fire and water that look indistinguishable from real life, which artists have been trying to do for 30+ years, and integrate them seamlessly with CGI characters.
This creates a problem when judging the category. Jordan Allen, a visual effects artist at CorridorDigital, said, “It depends on how you want to judge it when looking at the Oscars. Is it the invisible VFX that just aid the story, or is it the show-stealing VFX that are pushing the technology forward?” (VFX Artists React to 2026 Oscar-Nominated CGI 12:23-12:31).
Jordan makes a great point. Nominees “F1”, “Sinners”, and “The Lost Bus” all include amazing VFX that aid the story, while “Jurassic World Rebirth” is show-stealing. “Avatar: Fire and Ash” takes stealing the show to a new level. The team at Weta FX behind the film claims to have filmed many shots practically on a real set as reference for the visual effects, according to an interview with The Hollywood Reporter.
If a character rode a bird in the movie, they would film the character wearing a motion-capture suit riding a bird rig in real life. They used these shots to make the effects look photoreal. What the third film did differently from the last one was that it improved many of the fire and smoke visual effects to create them on a larger scale.
The other nominees also deserve praise for their hard work and contributions. Even if the effects are subtle, many times studios are finding new ways to make the process more efficient and cost-effective, which makes visual effects more accessible to smaller studios and students, and that always deserves recognition.
